Unforseeable

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The Unforeseeable Circumstances of Mr Gordon Brown

The most important decision now facing the British government is whether or not to join the euro.

Gordon Brown's statement of October 1997 sought to put off the decision until after the next general election. But, despite the changeover plan, this tactic of 'prepare and decide' is already wearing thin. International speculation is mounting about the timing of sterling's entry. At home, domestic pressure for an earlier decision is building.

Andrew Duff argues the case for an urgent decision &emdash one way or the other. He says that the longer the UK delays, the greater the risks, and the harder it may be to go in eventually. The Chancellor's own tests have been as satisfactorily answered as they are ever going to be; his 'unforeseen change of circumstances' has happened.

The euro is launched successfully; as an outsider, Britain's political influence is rapidly declining; the preparedness of British business is stalling in the absence of a clear government decision; public opinion is stagnating; and sterling is threatened with volatility. Moreover, with electoral reform postponed, the prime minister's modernising project needs the added impetus of the euro referendum.

Andrew Duff, Director of the Federal Trust, concludes by suggesting that the government can win the election regardless of the timing of the euro referendum, and if the hostile press has to be tackled, it should be tackled sooner rather than later.

CONTENTS EMU has happened Ą The still-outs Ą His five economic tests Ą Managing sterling Ą Being out in business Ą Put out in politics Ą Timing the general election Ą The euro and PR Ą Public opinion March 1999 ISBN 0-901573-89-2 Ł4.99

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